Reading the COVAX forecast

Even as Geneva-based health organizations announced forecasts for the supply of COVID-19 vaccines, countries in some parts of the world fear that their promised deliveries for vaccines were now being reprioritized by some manufacturers affiliated with the COVAX Facility. There is not enough clarity yet on how many countries will be affected in the short term.

This story parses through the official statements made by health agencies and contrasts it with publicly available information which suggest that bilateral deals between vaccines manufacturers and countries have begun to have an impact on vaccine deliveries for the COVAX facility as many had predicted.

“A number of countries are expressing fears that deliveries slated for the COVAX Facility have now been reprioritised for high-value bilateral deals,” a Geneva-based trade official who had spoken with a number of developing countries, told Geneva Health Files on the condition of anonymity.

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Officials in Geneva indicated this week, that countries awaiting COVID-19 vaccines from the COVAX Facility might have to wait until late February or even early March for the first vaccines to reach their most vulnerable populations. This is conditional upon a number of caveats including tying up supply agreements with manufacturers in time, putting in place formalities for liabilities and indemnification, getting required regulatory approvals, among others.


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